The Bitcoin Bubble?

I’ve been interested in Bitcoin since the early days but have not been paying much attention to the price action until recently. This is a postmortem of the idea that Bitcoin was in a “bubble” at the end of 2013. Neither the fundamental or technical analysis supported this idea.

Fundamentals:
Bitcoin in an exotic virtual commodity with associated technology. It has an established market base and a potential to become an international digital currency with wider applications. It is a high risk investment for skilled investors.

Technical Analysis:
Pundits* have recently suggested a bubble, however earlier and recent price action seem to confirm that this is not the case. (see program for explanation)

*Forbes, Bitcoin May Be Following This Classic Bubble Stages Chart, Jesse Colombo
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/
Jesse wrote the above article just after the probe and rejection of the A price range low, at about B on my chart. As you can see the market was easily able to break $700, such was the power of buying at below $500.

Conclusions
The Bitcoin market should continue the move to test the prior high in the next couple of weeks. Current behaviour suggest that the rally may fail near the prior high and fall back to retest the centre of the $500-$1200 range at around $850.

The above information and the associated program are purely intended for educational purposes, they are not intended as advice or a solicitation to trade.

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