Monthly Archives: July 2014

The Bitcoin Bubble?

I’ve been interested in Bitcoin since the early days but have not been paying much attention to the price action until recently. This is a postmortem of the idea that Bitcoin was in a “bubble” at the end of 2013. Neither the fundamental or technical analysis supported this idea.

Fundamentals:
Bitcoin in an exotic virtual commodity with associated technology. It has an established market base and a potential to become an international digital currency with wider applications. It is a high risk investment for skilled investors.

Technical Analysis:
Pundits* have recently suggested a bubble, however earlier and recent price action seem to confirm that this is not the case. (see program for explanation)

*Forbes, Bitcoin May Be Following This Classic Bubble Stages Chart, Jesse Colombo
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/
Jesse wrote the above article just after the probe and rejection of the A price range low, at about B on my chart. As you can see the market was easily able to break $700, such was the power of buying at below $500.

Conclusions
The Bitcoin market should continue the move to test the prior high in the next couple of weeks. Current behaviour suggest that the rally may fail near the prior high and fall back to retest the centre of the $500-$1200 range at around $850.

The above information and the associated program are purely intended for educational purposes, they are not intended as advice or a solicitation to trade.

The Corruption of Money (Part 1): bartering to early banking

In this first of 2 programs on money and banking I explore the economic challenges of prehistoric societies and how the development of agriculture, markets, currencies and early banking promoted wealth creation. I also highlight the challenges and risks of the ancient banking practices.

This program is foundational to understanding the social and economic importance of money.

In part 2 I explore modern banking, fractional reserve banking, fiat currencies and cryptographic commodities such as bitcoin.

Without Government

November the 10th was Remembrance Sunday a photo opportunity for nationalist and state flunkies to show their pseudo emotions and faux morality.

Hobbes though that without a strong central authority, civil society would fragment and people descend into a primitive and brutal life. There’s even a kind of meme that you can google that goes something like this “without government … people would run around killing each other”.

As a remedy to all this soldier and state glorifying pomp, let’s unwind that double-think with a little bit of reality check. Because it seems to me that government people have a long history of running around killing each other and a lot of people who were just minding their own business.

The fallacy here is that a civil society with law is impossible without a state and a central authority. I’ve covered this falsehood in many previous programs.

Libertarian Review: Russell Brand

Russell Brand attacked parliamentary democracy on Newsnight recently and told Jeremy Paxman why he doesn’t vote. Brands criticisms of the establishment have caused a stir because they are true. The days of party politics enjoying popular support are gone.

But what is to be done? Brand advocates windfall taxes on corporations and an “egalitarian socialist” system but admits he has no idea how that might come about. He seems to think that other people know how to do it.

I’m cynical about this. The left have played all their cards and can only mouth empty rhetoric. Brand is no stranger to profiting from mega corporations either.

In this review I take a deeper look at these issues and Russell Brand.

(sorry about lipsync issue)
NEWSNIGHT: Paxman vs Brand – full interview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YR4CseY9pk

An Open Letter to Russell Brand – Let’s Start a Revolution!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltiviifnA_E

Russell Brand I love you but you’re wrong
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL3dLN0pd7Y

FP017 Corporatism: A marriage of left and right
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlHauIRE9Ww

FP008 Breaking The Corporate Matrix
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9-iGDXnOJk

The Fall of the United Kingdom
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-ibcORs4I4