Monthly Archives: July 2014

Bitcoin Summer Analysis

An analysis of the Bitcoin market post MtGox!

Dramatic declines in Bitcoin price towards the end of December left some pundits calling a bubble in Bitcoin. However a few weeks later in early January, after reviewing the situation it was clear that the bubble did not pop. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Tj7n6sJ-o0

Bubbles tend to occur when non-professional investors attempt to trade on gossip causing a dramatic price increase that attracts more greedy investors to join later to catch some of the action. Once the high is reached everyone sells off to try and take profit and prices return to their original levels. A money market like Bitcoin was a poor candidate for a price bubble and as I explained, the price range established mid November offered support to what appeared to be a crash.

The failure of MtGox did not shake the other exchanges and although prices continued to decline in a down-trend on lowering volumes, prior lows probed more deeply but held and then the down-trend broke after consolidation mid May followed by recovery.

Summer brings a return of confidence in the market with consolidation around $450 in May and $550 to $670 area in June-July.

Conclusions
Overall a bullish outlook but still with concern from the lower low swing down to $350 in April. Opportunities to trade short if $550 breaks to test below $350 or if $670 area breaks, then up to $850 and perhaps probe the highs again at around $1150.

The above information and the associated program are purely intended for educational purposes, they are not intended as advice or a solicitation to trade.

Interested in more regular Bitcoin updates? Then please let me know.

Errata: At 8:08 I describe the bottom at $670 instead of $570 (dark blue line in B region).

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Divorce by Force

In this program I review recent news that the judiciary would like to extend access to the divorce process to the unmarried. I look at the cause of declining rates of marriage and the effects this is having on the divorce industry.

Sources and further reading:

The Telegraph, Top family judge calls for no-fault divorce for all and putting cohabitees on a par with married couples
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/sex/divorce/10796954/Top-family-judge-calls-for-no-fault-divorce-for-all-and-putting-cohabitees-on-a-par-with-married-couples.html
ONS, Marriages in England and Wales (Provisional), 2011
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/marriages-in-england-and-wales–provisional-/2011/stb-marriages-in-england-and-wales–provisional—2011.html#tab-Marriage-Rates

Talking About Family Law
http://www.talkingaboutfamilylaw.co.uk/judge-speaks-out-on-no-fault-divorce-and-rights-of-unmarried-couples/

The Guardian
Couples should be able to divorce without going to court, says top judge
http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/apr/29/divorce-consent-handled-registrar-courts

Mail Online, Let couples get quickie divorce at register office and protect unmarried women left on scrapheap, says top family judge
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2616123/Couples-able-divorce-simply-signing-form-says-countrys-family-law-judge.html

BBC, Divorce Reform Act 1969
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12417483

Divorce since 1900
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olympic-britain/housing-and-home-life/split-pairs/

Family Law Reform Act 1969
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1969/46

A brief history of divorce
http://www.cflp.co.uk/a-brief-history-of-divorce/

Mail Online, The wife who changed history – by asking for the first divorce
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-508936/The-wife-changed-history–asking-divorce.html

Family breakdown ‘could cost taxpayers £46bn’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/sex/divorce/10674267/Family-breakdown-could-cost-taxpayers-46bn.html

Eight Stateless Questions Answered

Here is the first program using the new production facilities. I answer some classic questions about stateless societies.

Libertarians / Voluntaryists / Anarchists facebook group
https://www.facebook.com/groups/112595305444742/

Some more programs dealing with these topics:

The Concept of Law
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_R5_EefMhQ

Empire Law
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M6qEhBqXk8

Stateless Societies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GK-AGK4FEO0

Without Government
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULqCJGCwkAA

Sources – see programs above.

The new freedomphilosophy.tv channel web site!
http://freedomphilosophy.tv/

The Corruption of Money (Part 2): Fractional Reserve, Central Banking And Bitcoin

In the second program I disentangle fractional reserve banking, central banking, fiat currencies and Bitcoin. I also point out the pitfalls of fully nationalized banking.

Sources:
The Problem is Central Banking not Fractional Reserve Banking
http://www.freebanking.org/2011/06/27/the-problem-is-central-banking-not-fractional-reserve-banking/

Inherent Instability In Banking: The Free Banking Experience
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/wp/wp275.pdf

Fiat Money, Investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fiatmoney.asp

Free Banking
http://mises.org/books/freebanking.pdf

The Nationalization of Credit?
http://mises.org/daily/3156